Waar gaat het met de wereld naartoe in het komende anderhalve decennium? Van de vele toekomstvoorspellingen zijn die van de Amerikaanse ‘National Intelligence Council’ altijd het lezen waard – voor geinteresseerden. De link naar het eigenlijke studierapport is geplaatst in deze bespreking ervan.
The United States National Intelligence Council has released a report, entitled "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World". This declassified document is the fourth report of the Global Trends 2025: The National Intelligence Councils 2025 Project,
The report outlines the paths that current geopolitical and economic trends may reach by the year 2025, in order to guide strategic thinking over the next few decades. The National Intelligence Council describes itself as the US Intelligence Communitys center for midterm and long-term strategic thinking, with the tasks of supporting the Director of National Intelligence, reaching out to non-governmental experts in academia and the private sector and it leads in the effort of providing National Intelligence Estimates.
The report was written with the active participation of not only the US intelligence community, but also numerous think tanks, consulting firms, academic institutions and hundreds of other experts. Among the participating organizations were the Atlantic Council of the United States, the Wilson Center, RAND Corporation, the Brookings Institution, American Enterprise Institute, Texas A&M University, the Council on Foreign Relations and Chatham House in London, which is the British equivalent of the CFR.
Among the many things envisioned in this report to either be completed or under way by 2025 are:
– the formation of a global multipolar international system,
– the possibility of a return of mercantilism by great powers in which they go to war over dwindling resources,
– the growth of China as a great world power,
– the position of India as a strong pole in the new multipolar system,
– a decline of capitalism in the form of more state-capitalism,
– exponential population growth in the developing world,
– continuing instability in Africa,
– a decline in food availability, partly due to climate change,
– continued terrorism,
– the possibility of nuclear war,
– the emergence of regionalism in the form of strong regional blocks in North America, Europe, and Asia, and
– the decline of US power and with that, the superiority of the dollar…