Prof. Paul Rogers analyseert de vijf belangrijkst probleemgebieden die president Obama erft: Irak, Afghanistan/Pakistan, Al Qaida, de verhouding tot Rusland en de veiligheids-implicaties van de mondiale recessie.
Deze uitstekende analyse is uitgebreider te lezen in onderstaand ORG-rapport. Wat m.i. ontbreekt in het lijstje is ‘het’ conflict in het Midden-Oosten en, in nauw verband daarmee, de verhouding tot Iran.
It can be useful at moments of transition to stand back from the flux of immediate even s and try to identify wider patterns that can help make sense of them – and where they might be heading. The election victory of Barack Obama in the United States provides such an opportunity. This column outlines five principle areas of concern that the new president will inherit: Iraq, Afghanistan/Pakistan, the al-Qaida movement, tensions between the west and Russia, and the security implications of the global economic recession. The analysis here is developed further in the Oxford Research Group’s latest international-security monthly briefing (see "The Tipping Point?", ORG, October 2008)…
..The global economic downturn is the biggest single threat to security across the world. On present trends many hundreds of millions of people among the poorest communities across the world will suffer most. This is likely to lead to the rise of radical and violent social movements, which will be controlled by force, further increasing the violence. The intensifying Naxalite rebellion in India and the substantial problems of social unrest in China are early indicators. Responding to the crisis in a manner which places emphasis on improving emancipation and reversing the widening of the global socio-economic divide is the most important task for the next twelve months.