..The Israeli nightmare is of an independently-minded President Obama, a war-weary America wanting to reduced its presence in the Middle East, a decline in support for Israel and, worst of all, a possible willingness to accept that a nuclear-armed Iran is probable within a few years and that this has to be accepted, however reluctantly.
It is for all of these reasons that an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities is a possibility before the next US President is sworn in next January. Furthermore, since such an attack would result in Iranian retaliation against US force, the United States would be drawn into the war with all its air power. Not only would much damage be done to Iranian nuclear facilities, but the United States would be at war with Iran in the run-up to the election, a circumstance that would be more likely to favour Senator McCain…
Two points may be made in conclusion. One is that Israeli politicians and military personnel are seriously considering a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, and if this was to happen, then it might well be in the next two months. It is by no means certain that there will be an attack just that the risk has increased substantially in the past three months. Given the potentially disastrous consequences if there was to be a war with Iran, even an increased risk that falls well short of certainty should be sufficient for every effort to be made to ease tensions and argue forcefully for stronger diplomatic engagement with Iran.
Is afzijdigheid van Nederland in Pakistan, Afghanistan en Irak, werkelijk ‘naief’? Opmerking De komende paar maanden worden ‘spannend’, dat lijkt zeker. Hoe spannend moet nog blijken. Maar dat er levensgroot gevaar bestaat voor een militaire confrontatie met Iran – door een (Golf van Tonkin-achtige) incident dan wel door een Israelische aanval – is zeker.
In ons nationale parlement is nimmer onder ogen gezien wat de consequenties van e.e.a. zouden zijn voor de Nederlandse militairen in Irak (trainers), in Afghanistan (ISAF), op zee rond Libanon (EU-vredesmissie) en voor Nederland i.h.a. (militaire betrokkenheid via NAVO en EU, radicalisering van moslims in eigen land, beperking olietoevoer etc.).
PRETTIG RECES Kabinetsleden en Parlementariers – hopelijk wordt U niet teruggeroepen..